Crist vs Rubio and Blumenthal vs the Truth

A couple weeks ago I wrote about dislike for Charlie Crist and my dislike of writing about campaigns. Apparently the former trumps the latter. After Crist declared as an independent in Florida, his poll numbers jumped by enough that he momentarily had the lead in the three way contest between him, Rubio, and Democrat Kendrick Meek. According to a new Rasmussen poll, however, Crist now trails Rubio 39-31 with Meek coming in at 18%. If support for Meek collapses, Crist may pick up some of those voters, but I can't imagine him getting more than another 4 or 5 percent out of the voters who are currently supporting Meek. When Lieberman ran as an independent against Lamont in Connecticut in 2006, the Republican candidate still held on to 10% of the vote, and that was in a situation where the independent candidate had been forced out of his own party on a matter of principle. By contrast, Crist's decision to leave his party was nothing more than political opportunism, and he lacks a signature issue where Florida Democrats would prefer him to Rubio in the same way that Connecticut Republicans preferred Lieberman to Lamont on foreign policy. Consequently, I have a hard time imagining Meek dropping below 13 or 14 percent support. Add this to the negative publicity following Crist's refusal to refund campaign donations and Rubio's fundraising advantage, and I have a hard time imagining Crist winning.

Speaking of the Connecticut Senate race, the New York Times reports that Democratic candidate Richard Blumenthal has been lying about his service- or lack thereof- in Vietnam. Avoiding service in Vietnam doesn't disqualify a candidate, but getting caught in a lie about it looks pretty bad. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out. (Hat tip: Hot Air.)